The Buhari Final Year Mid Term Report — Countdown to a Fresh Start

When watching a long distance race, watching the home stretch…..the final few hundred meters, is usually the fun part. You see as the top guys begin to separate themselves and wait for the moment to kick into gear. When its a particularly competitive race, it gets even more exciting….I remember the end to the Bupa Great North Run in 2013 when Mo Farah chased Kenenisa Bekele all the way to the tape and almost caught him….fascinating stuff.

Watching the home stretch of Buhari’s presidency hasn’t produced this kind of excitement though. The inability to bring about a positive impact in any sphere of national existence has become entrenched and accepted as the norm. In the past 3.5 years, nothing has gone right…..in fact EVERYTHING has gone wrong and regressed. The people are left with finding amusement (as Fela said, “me I dey laugh, man no fit cry”) in the absurd, such as stories that President Buhari is dead and replaced by a clone or by a body double named Jubril, take your pick. Such was the virility of the story that even foreign comedy shows got in on the act…..watch this from 1:32:

As with previous 6 month reviews of this administration, this will focus on that tripod of promises Buhari made about 4 years ago; to fix the economy, tackle insecurity and fight corruption. Here we go.

The Economy — You can’t give what you don’t have

That the Buhari economic management team is the worst in the country’s history is no longer in doubt. Six quarters after coming out of a self inflicted recession, the country continues to muddle along, unable to return to strong growth. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s GDP growth for Q3 2018 was a paltry 1.8%. Considering that Nigeria’s population growth is 2.6%, one can begin to understand why the circle of poverty has become even more entrenched. Nigeria with 87 million people below the poverty line, has been named the poverty capital of the world. All this is despite the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) which was launched by this government in 2016. Two years later, there has been no impact and the country continues to struggle.

More damning news was to come when the NBS finally released the latest unemployment data after exactly a year since their last report. The data had been subject of much speculation for a long while and that intensified when one of President’s spokespersons, Garba Shehu went on national television to say that the Head of the NBS Dr. Yemi Kale had admitted to the Federal Executive Council (FEC)that the previous data released by NBS was not totally correct as it didn’t look at informal sector. Garba Shehu asserted that the government had been informed by farmers that government policies had enabled them create 12 million jobs! Anyways, the report would come out and totally give lie to Shehu’s claims. As of Q3 2018, Nigeria’s unemployment rate had gone up to 23.1%, up from 18.8% when report was last published in Q3 2017 and from 8.2% in Q2 2015 when the Buhari Administration came to power.

The details behind the headline numbers speak to how badly the economy has been run over the past three and a half years. Consider this; since Buhari came into office, the working age population has increased by 12.6million people but the labor force population (i.e. those able and looking for work) increased by 16.5million people. Essentially, 4million people (ignoring possible deaths) have been forced into the labor market for survival as economic conditions worsened. To make things even more scary, the number of unemployed youths had increased from just under 4million to 13million…..a potential powder keg with implications for security of lives and property.

To complete the hattrick, President Buhari went to the National Assembly to present his proposed 2019 budget. Firstly, I must say that I think there should be no budget for 2019. The 2017 budget was extended to June 2018, which means the 2018 budget will run till June 2019 as well, just after the potential end of the Buhari admin if he fails in his re-election bid. Ideally, the new government should come in and focus on a 2020 budget that should be signed off by end of 2019 and restore back the fiscal discipline and the year from January to December, get the country back on track. Anyways, a look at the Buhari budget proposal shows that he and his minders have learnt nothing and have a distinct inability to improve and find a new way to restore the economy to growth. This administration is unable to find new revenue streams and unable to reduce recurrent expenditure. Rather, the only talent this administration has is to rack up meaningless debt that adds no value. In 2019, it is projected that debt servicing cost will be N2.14Trillion, higher than the budget for capital expenditure…..in a country with a huge infrastructure deficit.

Insecurity — From bad to worse

Nigeria’s security situation has been a tale of woe in 2018…..and that is an understatement. This year, two retired senior military men have been murdered, Major General Idris Alkali and Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh. Badeh’s was particularly disconcerting as he was the immediate past Chief of Defence Staff and was murdered in his car in Abuja, the nation’s capital. Clearly a signal of the poor security situation in Nigeria at this time. Fulani herdsmen have continued their attacks with no impunity, seemingly enabled by a government that chooses to turn a blind eye to the atrocities committed by this murderous pastoralists. It is no longer an inconvenient truth to say that this has happened because President Muhammadu Buhari is both a Fulani and a cattle rearer, it is no surprise that his bid for re-election has been endorsed by the Myetti Allah association.

However, that has not been the worst of it. 2018 has seen Boko Haram rejuvenated and back as an effective threat, sacking villages and military commands, inflicting severe losses on the army. Enjoying their new found ascendancy, Boko Haram has continued to take hostages at will, following up on the kidnap of the Dapchi girls (they released all but one and still have her in captivity, the Buhari government seemingly unable to retrieve her), with the kidnap of aid workers. Perhaps to drive home the point that they mean to be even more vicious now, they murdered two aid workers working for the International Committee for the Red Cross, named Saifura Khorsha and Hauwa Liman.

As detailed in this article, the hope that Buhari’s military background would enable him win the war against Boko Haram has proven to be misplaced. As the recently released 2018 Global Terrorism Index report shows, Nigeria is 3rd worst nation affected by terrorist activities with no improvement despite claims by Buhari that Boko Haram has been technically defeated. According to the report, in 2017 deaths from Boko Haram activities increased by 34% and attacks increased by 62%. With the onslaught seen in 2018, it is clear that whoever replaces Buhari will be taking over the country in a worse state than when Buhari received it, after the military push in February 2015 had decimated Boko Haram.

While the military has shown an inability to defeat Boko Haram, they have chosen to take out their frustration on the Islamic Movement of Nigeria. Following an attack by the army that led to deaths of protesting IMN members, the Nigerian Army justified their actions citing a comment by US President Donald Trump encouraging the US Military to respond with lethal force to being stoned by a caravan of illegal immigrants seeking to enter the US, see here. However, in this detailed report by the New York Times, it showed that the army’s attack had been largely unprovoked. This continued attack on the IMN following the killing of hundreds back in 2015 and imprisonment of their leader, risks creating an unnecessary security situation. For a government battling on so many fronts with a military stretched so thin, it is mind boggling that the government is so keen to create more threats.

Corruption — Buhari’s biggest failure

While no intelligent person, knowledgeable about Buhari’s antecedents would have expected him to perform any magic on the economy (after all, he promised to secure the economy with the military) and really asking him to solve insecurity was wishful thinking, there were some who really only wanted him to come and put an end to corruption. They were so bought into his mythological status as a man of integrity, totally incorruptible. Unfortunately, this has proven to be a myth. Buhari’s dalliance with the disgraced Governor of Kano State Umar Ganduje who was caught on tape receiving kickbacks, show that Buhari is only concerned about corruption when it doesn’t benefit him or those close/important to him. He needs Kano’s votes for his re-election bid so he is happy to turn a blind eye. It is in the same vein that former Secretary to the Federal Government Babachir Lawal, who was removed from office due to a report that indicted him for misappropriation of funds meant for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in the North East, continues to play a key role in the Buhari re-election campaign.

Buhari’s integrity credentials also took a beating when he kept silent as controversy swirled around former Minister for Finance Kemi Adeosun who was found to have presented a forged NYSC exemption certificate when she underwent her clearance to become Minister. Adeosun maintained a stoic silence for two months refusing to address the allegations, perhaps hoping it will blow over. The Buhari administration did not respond and it spoke to the impunity with which this administration operates when the malfeasance is close to home. Finally, after two months, Adeosun resigned and was allowed to leave the country rather than be prosecuted for the crime of forgery……as shown in this article, integrity is just a word.

That members of the Buhari administration are involved in questionable dealings is not in question, the Attorney General of the Federation Malami is a case in point. When he is not being accused of paying two lawyers N17Billion for recovery of Abacha loot after the work was completed, he is alleged to be blocking investigation of corrupt former government officials, see here. Let’s not even get into the farce that was the Nigeria Air launch, led by the Minister for Aviation Hadi Sirika. Buhari himself has a case to answer as Minister for Petroleum as it was revealed that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) was found to have diverted funds from the Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) company to pay for fuel subsidy without appropriation, see here. Not only has Buhari failed to stop corruption, he appears to have been an enabler.

A look ahead

This is the last review before elections, before we go to send a message at the polls on how we feel about the past 3.5 years and what we want for the next 4 years and beyond. We have a strong field this time, as strong as its ever been and for that reason there is no excuse to make the wrong choice. The 2019 presidential election is not only a referendum on the Buhari presidency (one he should fail woefully), it is also one for making a positive and progressive choice for a leader that will get us back on the path to prosperity, heal the wounds of divisiveness compounded by a Buhari presidency that never should have been and build a nation that is strong and offers opportunities for all. Nigerians do not need a next level of poverty, insecurity and inmpunity…..rather we need a 180 degree turn that moves us as far away from the current situation as quickly as possible.

P.S.

President Muhammadu Buhari vetoed the Electoral Amendment Bill, refusing to sign into law reforms that will improve the electoral process and ensure free and fair elections. Help sign and share this petition to the leadership of the National Assembly to call for a vote to override this veto. Let’s see democracy in action that truly puts the people first. https://www.citizengo.org/en/167222-national-assembly-leadership-should-immediately-call-vote-veto-president-buharis-rejection