The Cattle Rearer Chronicles — 6 Years In……What Legacy?

The word “Legacy” is a powerful word in my book. It speaks to imprints over time that retain permanence long after the imprinter is gone. It speaks to the indelible marks remembered and told in stories for generations. True power leaves behind clear legacies. In a political system, longevity bestows legacy opportunities whether they are actively or passively sought. I have often made the argument that in a democratic system, the winner of an election must have legacy on the mind from the moment they are declared winner….it must be well defined and pursued from the moment the oath of office is taken. In Nigeria, those with big opportunities to create lasting legacies are typically Governors and the President, with the latter having the biggest opportunity of all given the way Nigeria is structured. A single term Nigerian President can do a lot to be remembered by, a two term Nigerian President can totally remake the country. After 6 years at the helm, one can look at President Muhammadu Buhari’s presidency to examine the imprints he is leaving and will leave.

For some perspective, I thought to first take a look at the legacy of our only other two term President, Olusegun Obasanjo. President Obasanjo came to power in May 29, 1999 taking over from the military who had ruled for 16 years. The military regimes of Generals Buhari, Babangida, Abacha and Abubakar (I have purposely excluded Ernest Shonekan’s interim government) left behind a country in disarray and on the brink of total breakdown. Agitations for democracy had escalated after General Ibrahim Babangida annulled a free and fair election in 1993 which led to a series of events bringing General Sani Abacha to power and perhaps the worst 5 years in the history of the country. State sponsored tortures and killings, rampant corruption and state capture, complete decimation of the economy and breakdown across most spheres of nationhood (education, healthcare and security, etc). When Obasanjo took over Nigeria was in debt to tune of $28B, GDP was about $34B, Federal budget was about $7B with Nigeria in dire financial straits as oil price was just under $17 per barrel.

Obasanjo went to work building governance structures to take Nigeria forward. One of first things he did was to set up the Human Rights Violations Investigation Commission led by Justice Oputa (popularly called the Oputa panel) which looked into the atrocities of the military era. Obasanjo set up the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission to send a message to domestic and more importantly the international audience that Nigeria was looking to toe a different path. Obasanjo then set up the most audacious economic remodelling Nigeria has ever experienced — the telecoms revolution, the banking consolidation, liberation of several sectors and privatization of state owned enterprises. Perhaps his biggest win was the debt settlement deal that freed up Nigeria’s finances and economy, making the country a favored destination for investment capital. However, Obasanjo was not without blemish. The massacres in Odi and Zaki Biam will forever be a black mark against him. His failed attempt to go for a third term and then supporting an ailing Yar’Adua to power can be said to have set Nigeria on a course which has reversed most of the positives of his time in office. The Obasanjo legacy of economic liberation and political selfishness remains indelibly imprinted in the Nigerian psyche.

With that backdrop, Buhari as Nigeria’s only other two term president comes back to the fore. It is impossible to talk about Buhari’s presidency without first highlighting his journey to get there, losing 3 consecutive elections before being 4th time lucky. Under normal circumstances one would expect that having taken the road hard travelled, it would properly prepare someone who enjoyed tremendous support from those looking for a messiah. Buhari came to power on a tripod of promises — to stop corruption, fix insecurity and boost the economy. At the time he came in, Nigeria was embroiled in an insurgency battle with Boko Haram with the Chibok girls still in Boko Haram custody. Nigeria’s government finances were facing headwinds with oil prices crashing precipitously, even as it was clear that the economy itself was diversified and had come through a period of sustained growth. Corruption was endemic and needed to be addressed practically and systemically, but it was by no means the main issue. Over the past 5 years I have written here about the Buhari presidency, which also led to a book. Buhari’s foibles are well established, especially concerning the economy.

For this piece I am focusing on 3 key areas that have defined Buhari’s presidency and will be his legacy.

Divisiveness — Nigeria is a diverse country of over 250 ethnicities and languages, with 3 dominant ethnic groups. To lead Nigeria, particularly in today’s world, requires broad based leadership that embraces all and engenders a familial atmosphere. From day one, Buhari sought to divide. His 97% vs 5% remark will forever be remembered as a marker he laid very early on and which has become even more apparent as his time in office wore on. His appointments into key positions in which his choices are not constitutionally restricted show his one sidedness. Particularly when you consider his security appointments in which he has not just focused appointments on Northern Nigeria but has clearly sought to exclude the South East. Much more egregious is the fact that he turns a blind eye to atrocities committed by Fulani Herdsmen while pushing the RUGA agenda, yet quick to roll out the tanks in the South East at the slightest provocation. This clearly emboldened his Attorney General of the Federation Abubakar Malami to compare the Southern Governors declaration of a ban on open grazing to a ban on spare parts selling in Northern Nigeria (for clarity, the pre-dominant ethnicity involved in sales of spare parts are the Igbos of South East Nigeria). No Nigerian leader has ever been as divisive as Muhammadu Buhari and if Nigeria remains in one piece after he is gone, it will mean that Nigeria passes its second test as one nation in somewhat flying colors.

Dishonesty — For someone who’s claim to fame was as someone of integrity and incorruptibility, Buhari’s presidency has been one of shocking and brazen malfeasance. Several key members of the administration have been embroiled in one controversy or the other, starting with Buhari’s first Secretary to Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal, then the allegations surrounding his first Chief of Staff Late Abba Kyari. His first Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun had to step aside after being found to have forged NYSC certificate, his first Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen Buratai and his erstwhile EFCC Chairman Ibrahim Magu were both embroiled in corruption controversies. Buhari himself role modeled dishonesty when he continued to sign NNPC documents on his sick bed in London despite handing over to his Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. The Buhari presidency has claimed to have ended petrol subsidy, only for Nigerians to find out it is still in place and causing a severe drain on the nation’s resources. The Buhari presidency suborned the Judiciary by contriving spurious claims to remove a Chief Justice and install a stooge, damning the Judiciary to insignificance. When the likes of Garba Shehu and Femi Adesina put out statements, it is to muddy the waters and turn facts on their head. Case in point is Garba Shehu coming out to say the ban on open grazing by Governors in Southern Nigeria is of questionable legality…..on what basis? When did the right of Nigerians to free movement extend to cattle? Perhaps more damning was the defense offered to embattled Minister for Communications Isa Pantami who was outed as an Al Qaeda supporter and someone who had actively sought to lead a Jihad against fellow Nigerians because they are Christians. Buhari continues to retain him in office while claiming to be committed to an indivisible Nigeria. Mai Gaskiya in name alone, never in deed.

Lack of Intellectual Curiosity — this is perhaps the most unforgivable as the consequences rear their head in almost all facets of life. It is manifest in the inability to find optimal solutions, to keep trying the same brute force tactics rather than applying intelligence and empathy. From economic to governance, socio-political to security challenges, the approach is the same, inevitably the outcomes are the same. In the economic arena, it is banning legitimate activity while enabling inane policies by fiat, decimating the economy. From unemployment rate of 8% in 2015, Nigeria is now at 33% in 2021….and rising. We have seen 2 recessions and the Naira has devalued by 150%. There is rising poverty and rather than enable job creation, Buhari prefers to give handouts of $10 — $20 each to some of the population. Combination of a lack of intellectual curiosity and capacity has seen Nigeria go from one major security issue in the North East to a nationwide conflagration that sees the country dealing with issues in every one of the 6 geo-political zones. Lack of intellectual curiosity sees policies enacted that lead to key opportunities going elsewhere rather than coming to Nigeria, see Twitter decision to base HQ in Ghana. Lack of intellectual curiosity sees Buhari taking every criticism as a challenge to his hold on power, borne out of his PTSD from his expulsion via a Coup d’etat in 1984. It was evident in the response to the #EndSARS crisis when rather than address the issues raised by young people in the country, embrace them as the future and bring positive outcomes, Buhari and his goons chose to fire their guns on innocent and unarmed Nigerians waving the National Flag! Lack of intellectual curiosity leads to desperation as options are limited due to a narrow worldview that is archaic and myopic. It is what causes the demand for loyalty above competence and leads to sub-optimal outcomes across all arms of government as seen with the Legislature and the Judiciary. Buhari is famed for preferring cartoons, which explains why at almost 80 he has been unable to reinvent himself into what is needed for modern Nigeria.

With two years left to go, Buhari’s legacy is clear and marked indelibly. It will take a miracle of unimaginable proportions for him to do anything over the final two years to reverse what is an epic failure of a presidency. Can he fathom pushing constitutional reform to enable devolution and restructuring, weakening the center and strengthening the federating units? Can he enable the needed electoral reforms knowing that he is no longer in the running? Can he make a clean sweep of his economic team and bring in fresh ideas with the freedom to undo the disasters of the past 6 years and start building good foundations for the future? Can Buhari find the intelligence and sagacity to apologize to Nigerians for his sectionalism and start trying to rebuild an equitable and just Nigeria? Can he begin to take action against Fulani Herdsmen and treat them with same measures taken on perceived enemies of the state?

I have no belief that Buhari is capable of the introspection that is required or the ability to seek and listen to sound counsel. Therefore I hold no hope for a change over the next two years. My hope is that whatever has kept Nigeria together and kept the worst at bay, will continue to do so indefinitely. I hope that Buhari’s precedency does not set a precedent but instead in time, become a footnote that we only remember so it doesn’t happen again. More importantly, I hope that Nigerians have learnt from these locust years and will make sure that the one that comes in May 2023, will be one with the potential for a positive legacy that enables Nigeria achieve her potential. Amen.

P.S. Listen to Nigeria Politics Weekly podcast where Gege and I discuss the topical issues in Nigeria’s Politics and Economics scene with our guests every week.