The Cattle Rearer Chronicles II — #NextLevel: A Time To Be Alive
Sigh. After 6 months of resignation and disbelief that Nigerians willfully accepted another 4 years in purgatory, the need to capture my observations have again come to the fore. Following Atiku Abubakar’s loss in round one of the battle to unseat President Muhammadu Buhari via the judicial process (having lost out via the electoral process in very questionable circumstances, find details here), it now seems we may as well accept that we are now well and truly in #NextLevel era. It promises to be no different to the Change era between 2015–2019, in which the only change was of the negative kind. To symbolize the continuity between both epochs, the Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele got a tenure extension for services well rendered which include overseeing a self inflicted recession, a currency with multiple exchange rates and Nigeria named poverty capital of the world. More damning is the ballooning of the CBN Balance Sheet with the apex bank continuing to underwrite the most profligate and fiscally irresponsible government in Nigeria’s history. What a time to be alive.
Despite the continuity a second term is meant to bring, Next Level started in similar fashion as Change, with no ministerial appointments within the first 2 months. When ministers were finally appointed on August 21, 2019 (only two and a half months late, an improvement), they were as expected and fit the M.O. of the Supreme Leader. The list was replete with failed politicians and carpetbaggers, with almost no proven technocrats at a time the country needs its best hands to turn things around. A man in his final term, who should be looking to his legacy, chose to stick to a well worn template of cronyism and square pegs in round holes. Nigeria’s issues revolve around unemployment (emblematic of a near comatose economy), infrastructure decay (particularly Power and Transportation) and insecurity. However, as he showed in his first term, Buhari has no capability to tackle any of these successfully and lacks the imagination to surround himself with brilliant men and women who can help him bridge his gaps.
Chris Ngige retained his portfolio as Minister of Labour and Employment despite overseeing an increase in unemployment from 11% in Q4 2015 to 23% by Q3 2018. Power was taken from erstwhile “Super Minister” Babatunde Fashola and handed to Sale Mamman a businessman and former Ministry of Works official…..oh well. The Petroleum ministry remains Buhari’s personal fiefdom but he replaced his number 2, swapping Ibe Kachikwu (one of the few bright lights of the first term) with Timipre Silva, a former Governor of Bayelsa State with a cloud of corruption allegations around him. Finance, Budget and Planning were consolidated into one ministry (a good thing) but handed over to the unimaginative Zainab Ahmed who continues to prove she is out of her depth in managing government finances and fiscal policy. Perhaps the most galling is the appointment of the former Governor of Osun State Rauf Aregbesola, who failed in all indices while at the helm of his state for 4 years, as Minister of interior, a key portfolio in the security architecture of the country. In all 43 ministerial appointments were made, with Buhari showing no interest in reducing the size of government to bring down cost of governance. An “as you were” situation.
#NextLevel brings with it a continued focus on majoring on the minor, focusing on symptoms rather than addressing structural issues in the economy. Buhari has waged war on rice importation as he intends to ensure self sufficiency, leveraging the CBN to put it on the list of things excluded from the CBN’s FX window. The next step was to ban entirely the importation of rice with the Nigerian Customs Services enforcing that. That wasn’t enough though, Buhari ordered the closure of the country’s border at Seme to stop the “smuggling of rice into Nigeria”. All this despite the fact that Nigeria doesn’t produce near enough of this staple to feed her teeming population of almost 200 million people. As expected, the price has gone through the roof further inflicting pain on the populace, about half of whom live in extreme poverty. This is a country that continues to subsidize FX and fuel which are primarily enjoyed by the elite and well off. A country where more than 60% of revenue goes to service debt, with the balance used to prop up a bloated government and borrowing done to service recurrent expenditure (mainly payment of salaries for government officials).
As the Buhari administration is wont to provide, there was something new to feed debates recently as the government announced approval by the Federal Executive Council to increase VAT rate from 5% to 7.5%. I am a strident advocate for Tax reform and the inability to do this is one of the stark failures of the Buhari Administration. Given the situation when they came in, this should have been top of the agenda. Back in February 2016, I shared my thoughts on the need for wholesale tax reform, see here……increasing VAT was one of the required actions. Therefore I see nothing wrong with the proposed increase in itself (should have gone to 10% in my view). However, the failure to address as part of a well developed tax plan that will not only unlock much needed revenue but will also unleash private enterprise to boost the economy, makes this an own goal. The timing further compounds the issue, given the prevailing context of an economy struggling for growth and in need of consumer spending to boost demand, production and create jobs. The persistent inability of this government to find wholistic, effective and efficient solutions to the country’s many problems, particularly as concerns the economy continues to be mind boggling given the resources at their disposal.
Recent reports point to a Boko Haram resurgence, case in point this report by The New York Times. Insecurity continues to plague the country with armed bandits now in full control of the Abuja-Kaduna highway. Kidnapping has become rife from North to South. There is a clear inability of the government to protect citizens. Against this backdrop, Nigerians who live in South Africa, most of whom left the country for greener pastures given the prevailing conditions, came under xenophobic attacks from South Africans. Several Nigerians lost their lives, businesses and property were destroyed/set on fire. Nigeria’s response has ranged from boycotting the WEF Africa meeting in Cape Town to recalling the Nigerian Ambassador to South Africa and sending representation to the South African government to convey Nigeria’s displeasure. President Buhari also plans to visit South Africa to have discussions with President Ramaphosa.
All these sound like a government that is concerned about the welfare of Nigerians everywhere (took a while to get going though) but perhaps if they did their primary job of securing lives in Nigeria and providing the right platform for ALL Nigerians to succeed, few will have the need to go abroad. That I won’t be holding my breath for this over the next 4 years is not in doubt. 2023 can’t come soon enough (if Atiku fails in his bid through the courts) and then one hopes the damage would not by then be irreversible.
