The Cattle Rearer Chronicles: No Time For Any “Next Level” Menini
The journey to the February 2019 General Elections was finally flagged off on November 18, 2018, with the announcement by Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission that campaigns could now begin. Cue the flurry of manifesto and policy statement releases by the contenders for the biggest prize of all: The Nigerian Presidency. Sloganeering is a big part of political campaigns and this campaign has been no different. What has been curious is that most of the slogans have come from the opposition, from Kingsley Moghalu’s “It Is Time” to Atiku Abubakar’s “Get Nigeria Working Again”. The incumbent had not jumped into the fray with a new slogan and most assumed he would return with the same slogan that worked to good effect in 2015 — “Change”. However, realizing that might not play well as you can’t be saying Change after 3.5 years in charge (the people may just decide to follow your advice), the incumbent went for a new slogan: “Next Level”.
A rather intriguing choice. “Next Level” suggests a logical progression in the same direction that has preceded the current level. Under Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria has regressed at rate that was hitherto unfathomable. Almost every major socio-economic index has become worse since May 29, 2015. The economy is in shambles; the country has experienced a recession and is currently struggling to break the 2% GDP growth mark with the possibility of a double dip recession looming large. Inflation is in double digits, rising as high as almost 20% before coming down to the current level of 11.3% in October. Unemployment rate has increased astronomically, from 8.2% in Q2 2015 to 18.8% in Q3 2017 (the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has not reported unemployment data in the last year due to lack of government funding). Insecurity has become significantly worse, with the uncurbed Fulani Herdsmen menace allied to a Boko Haram resurgence, see here for details. For a candidate who ran in 2015 on the platform of integrity and a promise to combat corruption, it is incredible how worse the situation has indeed become. The level of impunity has plumbed new depths, see this article. To make matters worse, Nigeria is receiving bad press with investors being warned not to bring their money here, see here for a report on an op-ed by former UK Secretary of State Priti Patel.
Given the foregoing, it speaks to the utter incompetence and lack of basic intelligence that has bedeviled this administration and its principal actors, that a slogan such as “Next Level” was deemed fit for purpose of seeking reelection. Next Level of what? More unemployment? More economic hardship? More deaths (just recently more than 50 soldiers were ambushed and killed in the North East)? More unprofitable ramping up of debt to beyond pre debt forgiveness levels (Nigeria has borrowed $23Billion since Buhari came to power. The Federal Government has just launched another $2.8Billion Eurobond at almost 10% coupon rate!)? More people below the poverty line (under Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria has become the poverty capital of the world with 87million people under the poverty line)?
Perhaps the promise is to further make the majority of Nigerians dependent on government handouts for survival. Rather than create an enabling environment for all to succeed, the Buhari administration has resorted to giving out loans of N10,000 ($27.55) to petty traders. They have premised this on the need to give these petty traders the access to financing that should pull them up, see this article for a look at this program. N10,000. For a country with a burgeoning budget deficit and almost 70% of revenue spent on debt service, it is boggles the mind that rather than enable the people be productive so they can provide tax income to government, they are being rendered unproductive and dependent on handouts. The despicable part of this is that in some instances, the distribution of funds has happened very close to elections as seen in the case of Osun state, which is clearly one of the poorest states in the country. And to top it off, the distribution of funds was done by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo himself. This is the “Next Level” that is being promised by this crew of non performers.
Nigeria needs to find a way out of the quagmire created by the current administration. There is no doubt that this is the worst government Nigeria has ever had and this is a view also shared by no less a personality than Lawyer and Activist Olisa Agbakoba, see here. It is also clear that they have no capacity to turn the disastrous situation they have created around, as shown in their proposed “Next Level” plans which include doubling down on failed programs like the Anchor Borrowers’ Scheme. Buhari is promising to increase power generation to 11,000 MW after 8 years, despite inheriting installed capacity of about 13,000 MW. Buhari is promising to remodel and equip 10,000 schools per year despite having done nothing meaningful in the Education space in his first 3.5 years. The limited capability shines through in the fact there is no transformative policy proposal, nothing to really reposition the economy and allow the needed growth to happen. Rather, the entire plan is hinged on further proliferation of the Social Investment Programs.
Elections are about making the best choice out of the available options. Oftentimes, those options may be collectively underwhelming like we had in 2015, but it is still possible to do an effective evaluation and pick the best of the bunch. The field is much better this time around and there is no excuse to say there is no better alternative to the equivalent. In fact, the incumbent is quite clearly the worst of the lot. Nigerians must come out en masse to reject this offer of a “Next Level” that takes the country further down this road to perdition. Nigerians must put themselves, their future and that of their children first above any ethnic, religious, political or pecuniary allegiances and do that which they know to be right: send Muhammadu Buhari and his crew into a next level of permanent irrelevance.
