The Cattle Rearer Chronicles — The (In)Security Edition….And The “Strong Man” Failed
My favorite muse (there are quite a few of them, like the sartorial Minister whose swag has no equal and the Super Minister who makes dodgy claims) came into office making 3 promises: restore the economy, fight (some say he said pight) corruption and fix the insecurity issues. If you are a regular reader of these Cattle Rearer Chronicles, you may have surmised that after 3 plus years and facing elections in less than 4 months, he has not done well on any of the 3 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). You will also have noticed that a lot of focus in these Chronicles has been on the economy and corruption, not so much on security. This is not by accident as I have always believed that Nigeria’s issues take root in the inability of her leaders to create an economy that liberates the people and brings prosperity for the majority. This has created a situation in which poverty is rife and where there are no safety nets, other issues such as corruption and insecurity, become rampant.
Nigeria has had a long issue with insecurity in particular, largely founded on the inability of successive leaders to embrace and elevate the country’s diversity. Rather, they have chosen to divide and conquer (especially those of the military background), taking advantage of the divisions along ethnic and religious lines to entrench themselves in power. While Nigeria has had relative peace since the end of the Civil War in 1970, there has always been one incident or the other to threaten the uneasy balance that exists. Particularly in the Middle Belt region of Nigeria, there were always various ethnic and religious conflagarations over the years and each successive government struggled to get a handle on the situation. Throw in the political agitations toward the tail end of military rule in the late 1990s as the people sought to reclaim a stolen mandate and bring an end to military rule. It is a wonder that the country has remained in one piece after 58 years of a a highly volatile coexistence.
While these largely remained after the return to democracy in 1999, the focus shifted down south to the Niger Delta as agitations intensified over the neglect of the people in whose territory Nigeria’s primary source of income is found. These would rage during the Obasanjo presidency, with the devastating effect of the Odi massacre still fresh in mind. It would take a different approach by President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua to bring a semblance of peace to the Niger Delta region, through his Amnesty Program. As that was settling down, the focus moved to the North East and an insurgency that has come to define Nigeria for the better part of the last decade. Boko Haram became the main issue and by 2014, finding a solution to this ruthless and murderous group had become one of the key KPIs for anyone who would seek to rule Nigeria.
In 2015, one of the key reasons Nigerians chose Muhammadu Buhari was his credentials as a former senior military official. He was particularly highly acclaimed for his role in bringing to an end the menace of the Maitatsine sect in the mid 1980s during his time as Military Head of State. A man with such a resume surely would be the one to bring an end to Boko Haram and ensure lasting peace to the country. Fortunately for Buhari, by the time he took over on May 29, 2015, Boko Haram had suffered significant setbacks and had been pushed back due to a huge military offensive that begun in February 2015. This would give Buhari a good place to start and he swung into action from day one, appointing new military chiefs and moving the Command Center for the Military offensive against Boko Haram from Abuja to Maiduguri, the epicenter of the war, see here.
With the momentum gained and the wind in their sails, the military soon had Boko Haram on the run, which gave President Buhari the confidence in December 2015 to say that Boko Haram had been “technically defeated”, see here. With Boko Haram capabilities degraded, the group resorted to attacking what the Buhari government called “soft targets” i.e. bombs going off in public places such as markets, with not too many casualties. This reduction in casualties was reflected in the 2017 Global Terrorism Index report that stated that there had been 80% reduction in deaths caused by Boko Haram in 2016 compared to 2015, see report. Graph below shows the improvement that started from 2015 and into 2016.
By 2017, the momentum had fully swung in favor of the Nigerian government that it was able to get 82 Chibok girls released under a negotiated arrangement with Boko Haram, see here. It was later reported that the Buhari government paid a ransom of Three Million Euros to Boko Haram for the release of the girls (see here), a decision that will have significant repercussions…..more on this later.
However, while Boko Haram was becoming less of a threat, other issues had begun to emerge that would test the security credentials of the erstwhile general. In 2015, the Buhari administration stopped the Amnesty payments to former Niger Delta militants (see here) and that, added to a few negative remarks he made, led to a new threat emerging in the oil producing area in the form of a group called Niger Delta Avengers. This group would begin to attack oil installations, severely reducing Nigeria’s ability to produce oil…..a double whammy given that oil prices had crashed to below $30 per barrel.
In the north, a clash between the members of the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN) and the Nigerian Army led to a reprisal attack by the army that ended with hundreds of dead IMN members among whom were women and young children. To compound matters, the dead were buried in a mass grave and the leader of the group has remained incarcerated with no trial for almost 3 years. In the East, the Independent People of Biafra (IPOB) under the leadership of Nnamdi Kanu became quite noisy with their agitations for a breakaway Republic of Biafra, as a response to their perceived marginalization in the Nigerian state. In response, the Buhari ordered a military crackdown on a peaceful protest leading to 150 deaths according to this Amnesty International report. At each point in time Buhari’s preferred response was a full scale military assault, from Operation Crocodile Smile in the South South to Operation Python Dance in the South East, showing a heavy handed approach that made the issues even worse and further sowed seeds of distrust.
In the midst of this a long term issue between farmers and pastoralists in the middle belt snowballed into a full blown crisis. Fulani herdsmen were sacking farming settlements, leaving scores dead and there was no immediate response by the government, see here for a report on how this evolved. When Buhari would respond, rather than send in the army as he had done in other places, he chose to send in the Police and ordered the Inspector General of Police (IGP) to relocate to Benue state to end the crisis. As though sensing that his boss wasn’t really interested in resolving the issue, the IGP ignored the order. Buhari would later admit that he was unaware that the IGP did not obey his instruction, see here. This IGP still remains in office till today and the Fulani herdsmen continue to wreak havoc unchecked, seemingly emboldened by the fact that Nigeria’s Commander in Chief is Fulani and also a cattle rearer, sharing affinity with them. Despite a report that designates the Fulani herdsmen as the fourth most dangerous terror group in the world, the Buhari government refuses to officially designate them as a terror group. Given all these issues, it was no surprise that Nigeria’s rating on the Global Peace Index fell from Low in 2016 to Very Low in 2017, as shown below.
The worst was yet to come. As mentioned earlier, the Buhari government was reported to have paid a ransom to Boko Haram for release of some Chibok girls. It was no coincidence that this led to a Boko Haram resurgence which has intensified in 2018. First major incident was the Boko Haram kidnapping of over 100 school girls in Dapchi, a small community in Yobe state in northern Nigeria, see details here. These girls would be returned by Boko Haram with fanfare a month later (see details here), with one girl held back because she refused to renounce her Christianity. That girl is named Leah Sharibu and she remains in captivity.
Boko Haram continued their onslaught, attacking military bases and ambushing patrols. They would kidnap two aid workers in March named Hauwa Liman and Alice Loksha. In September they executed an aid worker named Saifura Khorsa and threatened to kill Leah Sharibu, Hauwa Liman and Alice Loksha. In a dastardly act that shocked the world, Boko Haram murdered Hauwa Liman, while retaining Leah and Alice in custody. The Buhari government failed to stop the killing from happening and has shown no capability to get Leah and Alice out. According to the International Committee for Red Cross (ICRC) the execution of two aid workers back to back is unprecedented, see here.
To say the security situation under Buhari has worsened, would be an understatement. There is no part of Nigeria where there has not been an issue and military intervention on home soil in the last 3 years. While before 2015 the country had one major issue in Boko Haram and a few sporadic issues of Fulani Herdsmen, the country is now sitting on a powder keg with issues rising everyday. Evidently, Buhari’s experience as a military commander has done nothing to alleviate the situation. Rather, his inconsistent approach and wrong decision making have been like pouring fuel into fire. Where a thoughtful and considered approach may have been the better option, he has gone for force…..where the situation calls for force he has hesitated and as seen with Boko Haram, in trying to score political points, he has revived an almost dead monster.
As Nigerians prepare for the 2019 elections, we must ask ourselves why Buhari must even be considered for re-election, having clearly failed very badly on KPIs he chose for himself, particularly the ones that seemed to play up to his strengths. If Buhari cannot address corruption (see here), cannot address insecurity as shown above, what is he good for??? He has taken the country into a recession and under him unemployment has risen from 8% to 19% as of 2017! Surely such abject failure cannot be rewarded with a second term, especially when Nigerian lives have been lost under his watch. Nigerians must send a clear and decisive message to Buhari and the presidents that will come after him that failure will never be tolerated nor accepted. This is what 2019 must be about.
P.S.
This piece is in honor of the memories of Saifura Khorsha, Hauwa Liman, the countless citizens that have been lost to Fulani herdsmen, the IMN members and IPOB protesters brutally murdered and countless soldiers that have lost their lives to Boko Haram. May their souls find peace.
