The Cattle Rearer Chronicles — After The Reggae In Osun, There Will Be No Blues
September 22nd and 27th will live forever in Nigeria’s annals of election infamy, following the drama that was the Osun state governorship elections. To be clear though, this was always expected to happen under the Buhari Administration….for those who understand the man’s psyche. For a man who always felt he was cheated at the polls each of the 3 times he lost his bid for the Presidency, it was not out of place to expect that he would champion free and fair elections, push further on electoral reforms that are much needed. Alas, Buhari’s true nature, which dissuaded many from voting for him in the past, has come to the fore. His party, All Progressives Congress (APC), has shown an unwillingness to accept defeat in any election, bringing the full weight of government resources to bear at each instance.
This was especially evident during the recent rerun elections held in Osun State on the 27th September. During and in the aftermath of the voting process, there were widespread reports of voter intimidation and prevention of observers and media by security forces, as well as very obvious manipulation of election outcomes by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The US Consul shared his observations as seen in the video below, watch from 2:06:
In spite of these reports, INEC went ahead to declare the APC candidate as winner and Governor-elect. President Buhari was quite quick to revel in the victory, congratulating his party and candidate.
To underscore his delight at the victory, Buhari also advised the aggrieved PDP candidate to seek legal redress if unsatisfied, see here. Not bad for a reformed democrat.
The Osun Gubernatorial election was seen as a dress rehearsal for the 2019 Presidential elections. The election was essentially a referendum on the APC government of Rauf Aregbesola, who had basically brought the state to its knees. See here for a story on how Aregbesola has over leveraged the state. Parallels can be drawn with how Buhari has run the country at large, with Nigeria’s debt to revenue ratio now almost 70%! The country has gone into a recession and the rate of unemployment has almost doubled. In spite of oil prices now north of USD$80, growth is still quite lethargic and dipped again in Q2 2018. Just last week the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated that there is risk of the country going into a recession again, see here. A rejection of the APC in Osun state was therefore going to signal a rejection of the Buhari presidency in February 2019….just as the reelection of Aregbesola in 2014 signaled the possibility of an APC presidency in 2015. The erstwhile military ruler could not bear to let that happen.
Still, the people did reject the APC with more than 60% of votes going against the APC candidate. Despite all their machinations, the victory was by less than 500 votes. Consider that in 2014, the APC won the Osun governorship election under a PDP president, by more than 100,000 votes. This represents a silver lining as we approach the 2019 Presidential elections. It is no gainsaying that I strongly believe we need a leadership change and I said as much in this article that looked back at Buhari’s 3rd year in office. However, a lot of people believe it will be near impossible to get Buhari out of office, referencing the appointments to INEC and heads of the country’s security apparatus, as well as the obvious willingness to use the full weight of government power to achieve victory at any cost. However, it is clear that Nigeria doesn’t have the security forces to police and intimidate 30–35 million voters all across the country on the same day. That will be the key.
What is critical between now and February 2019, is to ensure that people are determined to come out to vote, come what may. News and pictures from Osun can be discouraging and lead to voter apathy, but this must be fought back……and we all have a role to play. We will need a record voter turnout on 16th February 2019…..everyone must come out to vote and stay out to ensure their votes count. During the 2015 Presidential elections, the process recorded 47% voter turnout (number of accredited voters vs number of registered voters)…..if that number goes up to between 60–65% which is a distinct possibility, it would ensure such an overwhelming defeat for the Buhari administration that any attempt at subverting the will of the people becomes an exercise in futility. This must be the focus.
It is imperative that the forthcoming general elections be all about sending Buhari into permanent retirement in Daura…..it is a matter of national survival. Another 4 years of Buhari represents an existential crisis across every sphere of national life. It is equally important that we have strong, credible alternative(s) to the current President. So far, the field looks quite strong. The choices members of the main opposition party, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have to consider for their primaries all represent an upgrade on Muhammadu Buhari. In addition, we now appear to have the strongest 3rd force we have ever had since the return to democracy in 1999, in the person of Professor Kingsley Moghalu. Given what transpired in Osun state where the 3rd force apparently played a key role in ensuring the APC survived a humiliating rejection, it is perhaps necessary that some consideration be given to the thought of a consolidated opposition effort.
No well meaning Nigerian has a bigger responsibility than taking this message to heart and ensuring it is shared with everyone they come across. In four and a half months your country will need you to step up to ensure survival. Think about yourself and the ones you hold dear….be determined to play your part to help save Nigeria one vote at a time. Together, we shall prevail.
