The Peter Obi Phenomenon — Why I Am ALL IN
“Whenever I hear of no structure, my answer to it is simple, the 100 million Nigerians that live under poverty will be the structure…..the 35 million youths who don’t know where the next meal will come from will be the structure.” — Peter Obi, June 2022.
The road to #NigeriaDecides2023 has begun with most parties completing their primaries (especially for the presidential election) this past week. Of course a lot of attention was focused on the big 2 — APC and PDP. The PDP had some drama before their primaries with one of their top candidates and subject of this article Peter Obi leaving the party to join Labour Party (more on this later). The PDP had chosen to forgo zoning (a key feature entrenched in their constitution) and threw open the contest to all comers. At the end of the primaries, Atiku Abubakar who was the PDP flagbearer in the last election in 2019, won the PDP ticket ahead of Nyesom Wike (current Rivers state governor). The APC then had their primaries which had a lot of intrigue with President Muhammadu Buhari seeming to play a key role in the deliberations and showing his intent to pick a successor. The zoning discussion reared its head and a back and forth ensued with APC chairman Abdullahi Adamu announcing a consensus candidate in the form of Ahmad Lawan (current senate president) which was pushed back by the APC NWC and northern governors who insisted the ticket should go to the south. At the end of all the drama Bola Ahmed Tinubu (Lagos state governor 1999–2007 and APC National Leader) emerged victorious as the APC flagbearer, setting the stage for the first election cycle in 2 decades that will not have Muhammadu Buhari on the ballot.
Now, for those who are not familiar with the Nigerian political terrain, the country’s politics is dominated by two parties APC and PDP, the only 2 parties to have produced the nation’s president. There have always been other smaller parties in mix (18 parties are registered for the 2023 cycle), but none have been able to successfully challenge the big 2. In 2019, with Nigerians disillusioned by the poor choices both parties put forward, there was a clamor for a “third force”, but it didn’t come to fruition for various reasons as no candidate nor party could drum up enough support. The clamor resurfaced in the 2023 elections discussions and it initially seemed as though a repeat of 2019 would be the outcome…..until Peter Obi who was already getting a lot of support (particularly on social media) left the PDP as mentioned above and then joined the Labour Party (a party formed and owned by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC)). He would subsequently win the ticket to represent Labour Party during the 2023 presidential elections. Finally, a credible third force has emerged.
The emergence of Peter Obi at the head of a challenge to the APC — PDP dichotomy is premised not only on the antecedents of the man himself which I will address later, but on the wave of support online and offline particularly among Nigeria’s teeming youth population. The support has taken over social media like wildfire — there’s no debate that Peter Obi is the most talked about politician in Nigeria at the moment. Almost every poll that pits him against other candidates sees him win handily. His supporters who term themselves as “Obidients” have formed an organic movement that extols his character and accomplishments and have taken the charge offline to convince others of the need to vote for Peter Obi to salvage Nigeria after 8 years of debilitating decline. They are particularly determined to “serve breakfast” to both the APC and PDP by choosing to reject the old guard and their old and corrupt ways of doing things. Nothing reflects this fervor more than the drive to get their Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC). The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has seen an upsurge of people trying to register for their PVCs ahead of the deadline, such that INEC has had to move the deadline to a later date and commit more systems and resources to key locations where the upsurge has been seen (5 states in the south east, Lagos and Kano). As of May 2022 about 9 million new registrants have been added to the INEC voter database. According to INEC, youths (age 18–34) make up > 70% of the new registrants. Many have attributed this drive by youths to get involved with the political process as an outcome of the #EndSARS movement of October 2020…..the #SoroSoke generation intend to ensure they have a say in who leads Nigeria after Muhammadu Buhari’s ignominous regime comes to an end on 29 May 2023.
A question some have asked is — why Peter Obi. As one who has followed the man’s trajectory from afar for almost a decade, my response is always he is not just the best of the current pack by far……he is what Nigeria needs at this time. Those who have followed my commentary over time will know that I favor looking at Nigeria’s issues particularly from an economic lens. I firmly believe that the root of our problems lies in the inability to implement appropriate economic policies. This has worsened immeasurably during the Buhari regime, with knuckleheaded policies leading to 2 recessions, high double digit inflation, >30% unemployment (>50% youth unemployment) and > 150% devaluation of the Naira. The scenario has worsened Nigeria’s poverty situation with more than 100 million Nigerians living in abject poverty….Nigeria is seen as the poverty capital of the world. Nigeria’s interminable power crisis remains unresolved, Buhari and Fashola were unable to add 1MW to the distributed power. Infrastructure deficit remains a key issue, education and healthcare outcomes continue to be sub optimal with incessant strikes and poor facilities. Amidst all of this, Nigeria’s debt has ballooned significantly with external debt going from $10 billion at June 2015 to $40 billion by March 2022 and domestic debt from N10 trillion at June 2015 to just under N30 trillion at March 2022, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO). Nigeria now spends almost every Naira earned to service debt. Nigeria is suffering from a double whammy of a severe revenue problem with income of all governments (FG, states and LGs) combined being less than 10% of GDP and a spending problem with incredibly high budget deficits despite most of spending going on recurrent expenditure. These economic issues create the backdrop for the security issues across the country as seen in the upswing in banditry and crime. With poverty endemic, there are too many who are left with no choice but to turn to crime and many also become willing tools in the hands of extremists.
The foregoing sets out Nigeria’s current context and what the next president will inherit. Peter Obi’s career trajectory in the private sector as a businessman and former chairman of Fidelity Bank Plc show a man who knows how to derive success from private enterprise, which is key for a country of 200 million people. Nigeria’s governments will never be in a position to create positive outcomes for all, it is imperative that the shackles that have been placed on the economy and on private enterprise are removed to enable a positive turnaround. More importantly, Obi’s performance as 2 term governor of Anambra state leaves him head and shoulders as one of the best if not the best governor Nigeria has had since the return to democracy in 1999. He focused on growing the Anambra state coffers to enable him invest in infrastructure, growing the budget 4 fold during his 8 year tenure. He cut down on wasteful and non value adding spending and channeled those resources into key areas such as Education (Anambra went from 26th to 1st in WAEC during his tenure) and Healthcare. Anambra was adjudged to have the best road network within the country during his tenure. He inculcated a culture of saving for the state while making sound investments in private enterprises such as the SAB Miller (now AB Inbev) vehicle Intafact Beverages Ltd to the benefit of the state. Peter Obi was seen as a shining light for his fellow governors by the Jonathan administration such that he was appointed as a honorary adviser to the president on economic matters and was a member of the Economic Management Team, despite being from a different party APGA. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (former Finance Minister and now DG WTO) consistently extolled Obi’s outcomes and named him as being at the forefront of supporting the need to save the money in the Excess Crude Account for a rainy day which others like Amaechi and Fashola pushed back until the funds got shared. Throw in his never say die attitude which enabled him win back his mandate three times and his ability to maintain peace in Anambra during his time in office.
Obi will bring fiscal discipline to Nigeria. He will bring probity, accountability and judicious use of the Nigerian Treasury. He will cut down the cost of governance and push investment into value adding areas. He will create opportunities and enable small and medium enterprises thrive across Nigeria, creating jobs and lifting up the population. An Obi presidency will focus on Education, Healthcare and Infrastructure which are what Nigeria needs. An Obi presidency will also ensure that equity comes to the fore in the Nigerian polity after 8 years of the most divisive leader since 1999. I am a firm an advocate for the presidency to go to the South East in 2023, for the sake of unity and good faith…..an Obi presidency will make that happen. An Obi presidency will find the optimal solutions to addressing insecurity and crime, as he did during his tenure in Anambra. Nigeria’s insecurity challenges require sincerity and focus to engage and find the right solutions, while being decisive in dealing with issues with fairness and equity. Obi will bring his personal values to bear here. 2023 is an important electoral cycle in which Nigerians must get it right to avoid the negative spiral the country is in. Its needs a visionary leader who can effect a positive turnaround and lead by example. This is why I am ALL IN.
The path to victory for Obi is clear. He is expanding the voter base with an organic Obidient movement which should see turnout go from 35% in 2019 to about 45–50% in 2023, on a larger base of about 95–100 million registered voters. This suggests about 20 million new voters and with the preponderance of youths showing up, he should get about 50–60% of that push. With a strong northern VP who shares same values, they should have 15–18 million votes in their sights and enough to win outright. This will require that everyone gets their PVC and commit to coming out on election day to vote and stay till their votes get counted. It is time to truly push for positive change, Peter Obi and Labour Party offer the opportunity to send a message that Nigerians no longer accept business as usual. There’s plenty of time between now and February 2023….let’s get to work!
